Look up any online bookmaker and you will find them advertising “football predictions today”, and “today’s tips”, with all of them claiming to offer recommendations based on the advice of their expert tipsters.
Whilst the alternative market of football tips tomorrow may offer higher odds, is terms of football betting tips today are concerned you know that they reflect the latest information that is available about the forthcoming games. You might get a better price on an result by betting in advance. For injuries or virus sweeps through a team on the brink of an important match, you need to know that information is reflected in today’s tips.
Who are these expert tipsters that the bookmakers use? In reality, it is not one single person but a small army of statisticians, actuaries and analysts. They use sophisticated computer programs and algorithms to analyse the results of thousands of football matches played across numerous leagues and countries. They will crunch through innumerable options to produce their recommendations. These are promoted as today’s bet tips, or today’s football predictions.
Inevitably, bookmakers tend to focus on the major European leagues – the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A for example. That is where the most traffic comes from in terms of money and bets, and they are the games that attract the most press coverage. However, sometimes there may be better value by going further down the leagues. For example, if you are a fan of English football, by choosing matches from League One and League Two.
Whilst bookmakers may not display these games in today’s football predictions, or however else they choose to market or promote them, they will probably give you odds on them if you ask. And, because there is not such a demand for these matches, you may also find better odds on offer.
No individual punter, no matter how clever they are, or how much research they have done, can ever hope to match these bookmakers in terms of resources and analytical capabilities. So why not simply follow their advice when it comes to football tips today, and place your bets according to their recommendations?
You need to understand that it’s a regular league match, both teams fighting for the title, or to avoid relegation. Alternatively, is a derby where there is local pride at stake as well as three points? Often the circumstances of a game can have a huge impact on how teams perform. This is why some pundits suggest to avoid FA Cup games, for example, when following football predictions today. There is just too much history on the side of teams that, normally, would have little chance against stronger opposition.
Another reason to do your own research into matches has to do with the nature of the bookmakers themselves. Bookmakers are private companies with shareholders, and there reason for being is to make money. Therefore, whilst their reputation matters to them – there are many competitors in the market, and it is easy to compare prices and identify any outliers – they are not totally unbiased when it comes to their today’s football predictions.
The odds that they quote for any match or outcome always contains a “house edge” or profit margin. This means that the prices quoted are not as undiluted as they might be if a purely neutral organisation was providing them. Therefore, paradoxically, there can be better value betting against the today’s bet tips that many of them provide.
There are always a number of football tips today typically on offer. Amongst the most popular markers are both teams to score, correct score, over/(under) 2.5 goals and half-time and full-time results.
Both teams to score is amongst the most favoured of all betting strategies because it is one of the simplest of all to understand and predict. And, even if betting on a losing team, your bet can still succeed. For example, if Manchester City were playing Southampton at home in the Premier League, a bet on City win is an obvious one to make, and would probably be an odds-on with the bookmakers. You could bet on Southampton to win, the likelihood of the bet succeeding would be quite remote. However, if you bet on both teams to score, even if the away team lost heavily, then provided they found the net once, your bet would still succeed.
Correct score is a much more difficult bet to make, and, consequently is usually on offer at higher odds. With this bet, you are not only betting on win, lose, or draw, but the exact score as well. This requires an in-depth analysis of the teams involved, form, injuries, suspensions and other factors such as importance and context of the match, in order to make an accurate prediction. Because so many things can go wrong with such a bet, it’s not as popular as over 2.5 goals.
This is a popular form of wager in all sports betting. Known as overs and unders more broadly, this type of bet is based on the principle that the bookmaker sets a mark for the aggregate number of goals that will be scored in a match, and the player has to bet whether the actual number of gaols cored will be over, or under, that level. Whilst there are several such options in football, over 2.5 goals is the most commonly followed.
This bet focuses on is the likelihood there will be three goals or more scored in a match e.g. 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1 etc. The figure 2.5 is not an arbitrary one. Research across many professional leagues has shown that the average number of goals scored in matches is 2.48, so betting 2.5 goals or more is slightly below this mean. In reality, certain leagues average more than this figure.
Full-time and half-time results are variants of the same bet. They can either be a simple prediction of whether teams will be winning, losing or drawing at half-time and full-time, or an extension of the correct score prediction, in which event a player is trying to forecast the correct score between two teams at half-time as well.
Other popular bets include first goal scorer, or the number of yellow or red cards in a match. Alternatively, you can choose to combine several bets in an accumulator.
If you want to follow today’s tips, some general advice. Firstly, remember not to let your heart rule your head. Be objective and never let subjectivity cloud your judgement. That means betting on favourites wherever possible, and choosing shorter priced bets over long shots. The pay-out may be lower but the probability of winning higher.
Keep track of all your bets, both those that win and those that fail. That enables you to learn what has worked in the past, and what has failed, and enables you to tailor your betting strategy in the future.
If you see that a bet or series of bets is failing, never be afraid to cut your losses and get out early, rather than stick with them until the end and suffer even more financial loss. For example, if a cash-out early option enables you to recover some or all of your stake money, then do not be afraid to take it, as some of those funds can be reinvested in other bets that might succeed.
If you have been on a losing streak for a while, take a break from betting for a few weeks. Step away and think about what has gone wrong and your approach, and recharge your batteries and enthusiasm. The period of contemplation may be just what you need to get back on the right track.